California 2006

How Can We Conclude the 2006 Midterms?

frankscire — Thu, 09 Nov 2006 03:57:49 +0000

How can we conclude the 2006 midterm election in California? What can we draw from this about the California electorate? I suggest that we can safely say that California, much like any other state, was voting for change in 2006. It may not be as visible in California, an already blue state with arguably gerrymandered districts in favor of democrats, but we do get some hints of the democratic tide.

The 11th district was lost for republicans, even though in 2004 this was a strong republican district. The winner, Democrat Jerry McNerney, won with 53% of the vote, a considerable win in a red district. However, I suggest that the 11th district went from red to blue because the voters were voting on national issues.

Exit polls show that 41% of voters across the country felt that corruption was an extremely important issue. McNerney ran his campaign on promises to introduce ethics reform legislation, including completely banning gifts and travel paid for by lobbyists. His opponent, Richard Pombo, dodged many ethics reform questions during the campaign and eventually paid for it with his seat in Congress. So we can say that the 11th district was no different from the other 30 (give or take a few) districts that changed parties and went Democratic, but what about the 52nd district?

The 52nd district was arguably the only other close race to watch in California. Here voters were also voting on simple issues. The 52nd district is in the San Diego area in Southern California. Immigration is the biggest issue here and the Republican, Representative Brian Bilbray, ran his campaign on the fact that Democrat Francine Busby had a soft immigration policy. This race was a no-brainier that the Republican would hold it because he took the stand that polled the best on the most important issue in his district.

So what can we take from the 2006 midterms? We can safely say that California was no different from the rest of the country. We had evidence that the democratic tide swept Richard Pombo from office in the middle and north of the state. We can also see that all politics were local in Southern California because the local issues are what mattered most to voters there. So while it might be harder to see, California turned out just like the rest of the country and experienced the Democratic Tide like many saw coming.

~~Frank

Democratic Take-Over in 11th??

frankscire — Tue, 07 Nov 2006 20:02:32 +0000

Contrary to most polls and articles, Robert Novak suggests that the 11th district of California may go Democratic. He has some very compelling evidence to back up his claim. I think the most interesting thing to note here is that the Republican National Campaign Committee actually chartered a private jet to fly volunteers to Richard Pombo on Saturday. This could mean they are playing it safe, or it could mean they have insider polls showing a likely defeat. This will be an interesting one to watch Tuesday night.

Source: http://www.humanevents.com/evansnovak.php?id=17896

~~Frank

Why General Congressional Polls Mean NOTHING

frankscire — Thu, 02 Nov 2006 04:37:49 +0000

We have all seen the Cable News Anchors touting the latest general congressional polls and how wide of a gap it is between those who want Democrats and those who want Republicans in congress. What these anchors forget to mention however, is that these polls mean nothing because in America we have “Congressional Districts.” This means that the only majority that matters to a congressional race is the majority in that district.

Many “corespondents” or “analysts” have been comparing the General Congressional Polls of this year (Democrats +16 in some polls) to those of ’94 (Republicans +6 in most polls) and have tried to draw conclusions that this means democrats should be sweeping well over the 15 seats in the house that are needed to regain a majority. What these people do not understand is the concept of local elections and gerrymandering.

In 1994 Republicans were able to take 52 seats in the house because of a nationalized campaign lead by Newt Gingrich. The Democrats are not in this position this year. They lack a national figure to lead them and so they are forced to run local races against incumbents which is extremely hard due to name recognition and pork barrel spending.

Another misleading factor in these polls is the fact that they do not take gerrymandering in to account. Many districts have been redrawn since ’94 leaving very few competitive races. The only polls that matter now are the polls in those districts. However, even then we must take into account the fact that in most cases the GOP has a better get-out-the-vote and can usually make up at least the margin of error in a poll.

California is the best example of why these General Congressional Polls mean nothing. There are 3 competitive races in California and all are going Republican. This is because of the above mentioned gerrymandering and localized races.

I think that those who are looking at these General Congressional Polls and calling for Democrats to win 30 seats in the house are going to be very unhappy (and maybe out of a lot of money) come November 8th.

~~Frank

Saddam’s Verdict to Be Released Nov. 5th

kritek — Sat, 28 Oct 2006 16:08:40 +0000

The court presiding over the Saddam Hussein crimes against humanity trial announced that the verdict will be released November 5th, two days before our midterm elections. Is this date a coincidence, or is it U.S. government influence? Is the Republican administration trying to use the trial for political gain? Read it here.

An Early Indicator for Competitive Congressional Elections

frankscire — Fri, 27 Oct 2006 17:40:04 +0000

As we have stated in previous posts, the 4th, 11th, and 50th districts are probably going to be red come November 8th. However, when watching the returns, take note of the results in the 1st district of Ohio. This race is comparable to all three competitive races in California and it could show us the trends of the country earlier than California because of the time difference.

Ohio-1 is very similar to the competitive races in California. It was recently redrawn so it would be tough for a Republican to lose, it is a strong GOP district, and the incumbant is a republican.

A victory in Ohio for Republican Rep. Steve Chabot will signal that our predictions are right and Republicans will win in the 4th, 11th, and 50th in California. however, a lose for Chabot will signal a depressed GOP turnout as a result of a number of issues. This race will be interesting to watch come election day because it will give us an indicator for the elections in California.

~~Frank

Latest Ratings on the House Races

frankscire — Wed, 25 Oct 2006 03:16:42 +0000

The Cook Political Report has issued ratings on the most competitive house races in California:

4th district: This strongly republican district is surprisingly a close race. It currently leans republican, but this shows that the democratic candidate has made considerable gains in the past. This district votes an average of 11 points more republican than the rest of the country. That should make us wonder if the democratic challenger can get the last push two weeks before election day.
11th district: This race has shown repbulican incumbent Pombo leading the whole race, however the Cook Political Report shows this race only as leaning republican. Pombo has a lot more cash on hand going into the final two weeks, but a major event could cause this race to go blue.
50th district: We should note that this race was the most competitive in the beginning of the 06 race, but now it is a “likely republican” district. This is also a very heavy republican district but it was shaken buy the Cunningham scandal in 2005. I think that the further from the scandal the more points Bilbray(R) will gain.

So with two weeks before elections, we see that California is not mirroring the rest of the country. The three most competitive house seats in California are looking at a Republican sweep, however with two weeks to go anything can happen. Has the wave of anti Republican/incumbent sentiment reached California yet? Have republicans successfully run local and incumbent focused elections in California like the RNC planned on doing in the first place? We will see in exactly 14 days.

Source: http://www.cookpolitical.com/races/report_pdfs/2006_house_comp1_oct20.pdf

~~Frank

Facebook’s Take on Election 2006

kritek — Mon, 23 Oct 2006 14:00:18 +0000

As you may or may not know, Facebook has a section for Election 2006, where Facebook users can add candidates as friends and campaign issues as groups. I did a little research on some of the California districts and issues we have been discussing.
In the 50th district House race:

Francine Busby (D): 64%

Brian Bilbray (R): 32%

Paul King (L): 3%

Miriam Clark (I): 1%

In the 11th district House race:

Jerry McNerney (D): 66%

Richard Pombo (R): 34%

Dina Padilla (I): <1%

For Governor:

Arnold Schwarzenegger (R): 65%

Phil Angelides (D): 29%

Peter Camejo (G): 4%

Art Olivier (L): 1%

Janice Jordan (I): <1%

Related to issues, some of the most talked about ones on Facebook related to California were Proposition 85 (which is related to abortion), building a fence along the California-Mexico border, and a number of other propositions. Oh, and if you were wondering, Nancy Pelosi probably does not eat babies.

Voter Intimidation in California’s 47th

frankscire — Sat, 21 Oct 2006 01:09:57 +0000

Democrats in California can count on holding on to the seat of the 47th district after alleged voter intimidation by the Republican challenger. The challenger allegedly sent out mass mailings to immigrant voters in the 47th district telling them that it is illegal to vote. However, the recipients of the letters were actually legal immigrants who were legally registered to vote.

This shows that democrats will have the upper hand when it comes to immigrant voters, especially Hispanic immigrants. I think that the Congressional Republican’s harsher stance has already hurt their chances of getting immigrant votes, and it will continue to in the future.

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/washington/politics-california-congress.html?_r=1&oref=slogin

~~Frank

Gains for California in a Democratic Take-over

frankscire — Wed, 18 Oct 2006 19:46:12 +0000

In the past few weeks polls have shown that it looks increasingly as if Democrats will take the majority in the House. What does this mean for California Democrats?

Rep. Nancy Pelosi of San Fransisco will most likely become the speaker of the house. This is important for California because the house speaker has a major role in setting the agenda with regards to what issues will be delt with. California, being a very liberal state, is often disgruntled with many of the initiatives in congress. This could all change if Rep. Pelosi becomes speaker.
Tom Lantos of San Mateo will most likly become the chair of the International Relations Committee. This is a potentially important committee for democrats because it deals with over sight of international relations. If Rep. Lantos becomes chair, he has promised to increase the oversight of the Bush administration policies.
George Miller of Concord would become the chair of the Education and Workforce Committee. Rep. Miller promises an agenda which includes a minimum-wage increase, lower interest rates on college tuition loans and more investment in science and engineering. The latter has been a long term goal of many high tech and silicon valley companies in California.

So what does all of this mean for Californians? It means they will have broader influence over many issues and bills passed in Congress. Not so much that we will change our name to The United States of California, but enough to possibly notice a shift in direction.

Source: http://www.mercurynews.com/mld/mercurynews/news/politics/elections/15758962.htm

~~Frank

Schwarzenegger on the Tonight Show

kritek — Thu, 12 Oct 2006 19:05:03 +0000

Schwarzenegger appeared on the Tonight Show with Jay Leno Wednesday night, and tried to distance himself from President Bush. The governor even poked fun at himself with the following statement.

“To link me to George Bush is like linking me to an Oscar,”